Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart Analysis – June 14, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD is in a retracement phase after the major swing higher. Price is currently consolidating and forming a tightening sideways consolidation pattern. If price breaks to the upside of this consolidation, this could possibly mark the end of the retracement and price may start a rally and attempt a swing higher. If price breaks to the downside, there could be some heavy selling. If so, there may be some possible buying opportunities as we hit the trend support area at 0.7280-0.7320.

Following the very poor non farm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on AUDUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). US Retail Sales are set to be released today at 1230 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has found support at the identified previous horizontal resistance (identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). The market may present more buying opportunities if price retraces back to the previous horizontal resistance (now support) at 0.7900. The longer-term trend line now also rests around the 0.7880-0.7900 area, suggesting added support at this previous horizontal resistance level.

The GBP continues to weaken as Brexit uncertainty looms. If poll results continue to suggest a possibility of the UK leaving the EU, we may see EURGBP continue to move higher as the GBP weakens. Yesterday’s poll results indicated a greater lead in support of leaving the EU. There is GBP CPI news at 0830 UTC. Unless the data is significantly different to expectation, this news is not likely to cause major movement on GBP pairs – Brexit is currently the main driven force in sterling.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The market has been trying to reverse the bullish impact of non farm payrolls since 09/06/2016 but price was bullish in yesterday’s trading and is currently finding support. From a technical view, there are very few short-term key levels and areas to expect price reversal. The overall trend is up, if the EURUSD depreciates, there may be buying opportunities at the potential trend support at the 1.1200 area (this is also a possible psychological support level).

Following the very poor non farm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on EURUSD, if negative USD economic news is released. Unlike the AUDUSD though, Brexit weighs on the euro and we may not see such strong bullish moves. US Retail Sales are set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD continues to be bearish and has already provided so many short selling opportunities. Price found resistance and reversed at the marked 38.2% fib level in yesterday’s chart analysis. The recent bearish move is now looking a little over-extended and there could now be a possible retracement, this may form a double-bottom price pattern – keep in mind that the overall trend is down.

Pound sterling weakness is heavily due to the uncertainty caused by the EU referendum. If poll results continue to suggest a possibility of the UK leaving the EU, we may see GBP pairs continue to move lower. If polls start suggesting that staying in the EU is more certain, then GBP will likely start a strong rally. There is GBP CPI news at 0830 UTC. Unless the data is significantly different to expectation, this news is not likely to cause major movement on GBP pairs – Brexit is currently the main driven force in sterling.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD is in a clear and confirmed uptrend. Price is currently retracing after a price swing higher. The bearish momentum will likely continue until price closes above the bearish diagonal resistance. The moving averages have just crossed bearish, suggesting that the retracement continues for now. Possible buying opportunities may present themselves at the 50% and 61.8% fib levels, as price closes above the diagonal resistance line and as price moves back above the moving averages.

Following the very poor non farm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month and the positive New Zealand dollar interest rate release, we may see some big moves higher on NZDUSD. From a fundamental view, this chart and pair is of high interest. US Retail Sales are due to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD is retracing after the recent move lower. Price has passed the 23.6% fib level and is now nearing the more significant fib levels of 38.2% and 50% There may be possible short-term buying opportunities as price retraces and longer-term short selling opportunities as we reach the fib levels (1.2770 & 1.2900) and as the bullish moving averages tighten.There is also a previous support level (now potential resistance) at 1.2920.

Following the very poor non farm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves lower on USDCAD. With recent positive economic figures from Canada and the partial recovery in the oil markets, the Canadian dollar is set to strengthen. Taking all of this into consideration, the USDCAD may present some very profitable selling opportunities. US Retail Sales are set for release at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

From a technical view, the USDCHF is still in a very similar situation to the USDCAD – price has yet to reach any significant fib levels and we have just seen a bullish moving average cross but there are now some key differences. Price has formed a bullish channel.This could present some shorter-term buying opportunities but also a longer-term selling opportunity if price closes below the channel support. This channel price breakout could suggest the end of the retracement and the start of a move lower. If price continues to retrace and move higher, there are potential reversal areas at the 38.2% fib level (0.9710) and the 50% fib level (0.9750).

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. US Retail Sales are set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY reversed at the identified resistance (106.35) in yesterday’s chart analysis. We may see the market test the resistance level again in today’s trading sessions. If the resistance does not hold, the next potential reversal area is the bearish trend line at 106.80-107.00.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. US Retail Sales are due to be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has started to retrace after an over-extended bullish move as analysed in yesterday’s chart analysis. If price is going to move higher, there may be good opportunities to go long as we test the 38.2% and 50% fib levels (1267.00 & 1260.80). With such a strong move higher, we should expect a strong retracement, presenting some selling opportunity.

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